The Unprecedented Success of Beto O'Rourke
- Isaiah Castillo
- Oct 17, 2018
- 6 min read
-This article is an adoption of an essay written for a class during the Fall 2018 semester.-
Among nationwide mid-term elections this fall in the United States, few have garnered more attention than the senate race in Texas between Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke and incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. The last Democrat to hold a statewide office in Texas was Garry Mauro who won the office of Texas Land Commissioner in 1994. For the past 24 years, Republican candidates have been able to write off Texas as a victory, but the unprecedented success of Beto O’Rourke has cast Texas into the national spotlight and has made it one of the most important battlegrounds this midterm. Heading towards the November 6th general election date, average RCP[1] shows Cruz polling +4 over O’Rourke, a number which has been consistent over the past few months[2]. Though many media outlets and correspondents aren’t predicting O’Rourke to win the traditionally Republican state, the unexpected success of his campaign has important implications for the future of campaigns. An analysis of the O’Rourke campaign reveals a unique set of strategies that have led to his success thus far. More importantly, his success in the traditionally red state of Texas provides a future blueprint for Democrats as they move towards 2020.
Obvious and stark policy differences exist between the two candidates, especially on controversial topics such as abortion, gun laws, and immigration. Yet, it isn’t O’Rourke’s policy that is driving his success, for Texas only two years removed from a presidential election where Republican Candidate Donald Trump received 52.6% of the vote. It’s also important to note that in the same primary, Ted Cruz received 43.8% of the votes to Trump’s 26.7%. It’s difficult to imagine that in two years the state of Texas experienced an extraordinary shift in voter policy stances. The explanation for O’Rourke’s success doesn’t reside in his policy, but rather in the way he has chosen to run his campaign.
Analyzing O’Rourke’s campaign reveals three key strategies on which he has run his campaign; to not accept PAC contributions, appealing to small town and rural communities, and committing to digital advertising and social media initiatives.
O’Rourke’s fundraising strategy to not utilize PACs or special interest groups mirrors a growing trend this midterm season among Democratic candidates. Through the second quarter, O’Rourke had raised $23.33 million compared to Cruz’s $23.36 million and had spent $4.7 million less than Cruz (Federal Election Commission, 2018). Data shows O’Rourke has relied on individual contributions along with Democratic/Liberal Organizations ($1.5 million) and lawyers and lobbyists ($1.3 million) to account for the majority of his fundraising (Krishan, 2018). However, the most recent third-quarter report has revealed that from July to September O’Rourke raised upwards of $38 million compared to Cruz’s $12 million, setting a new record for the largest-ever fundraising quarter for a U.S. Senate candidate (Ever-Hillstrom, 2018).
However, the success of O’Rourke’s fundraising strategy may not lay in the numbers, but rather in the ideology. O’Rourke’s no PAC commitment reflects the similar trend of the Obama and Bernie Sanders campaigns who refused many types of corporate contributions. In these 2018 midterm elections 185 Democrats have pledged not to accept PAC contributions, 85 of which have won (Godfrey, 2018). This includes Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez whose upset of Joe Crowley to win the Democratic primary for New York’s 14th district dominated national headlines this past June.
O’Rourke, like other successful politicians before him, is utilizing a fundraising ideology that appeals to the public sentiment that the campaign finance system needs reform and that PAC money should not be allowed in campaigns[3]. Pew Research polls show that 77% of Americans believe there should be limits on the amount individuals and groups spend on campaigns (Jones, 2018). The most interestingly this strategy was utilized by President Trump during his 2016 campaign. Trump’s “drain the swamp” narrative was the idea that rather than representing the people, Washington represented the interests of corporations and lobby groups. Of course, this narrative was later broken by the Trump campaign, although Trump did accept less PAC contributions than most other candidates.
O’Rourke isn’t only defying conventional Republican stances of strategy, but also strategies of past Democrats. O’Rourke has kept his promise to meet with his constituents by visiting all 254 counties in the state of Texas. This strategy mirrors what many academics believe made the Trump campaign successful and is something that Democratic candidates in the state of Texas have failed to do for many years: appeal to the small town and rural voters.
Democratic strategy in the past has been to focus on mobilizing the more liberal populations in big cities such as Houston, Austin, and Dallas. On his road trips through Texas, he has held several open town halls and rallies in an effort to interact with counties deemed “unimportant” by previous Democratic candidates. Trump appealed to this population of voters through proposed policy and media appearances, but O’Rourke’s liberal policy and platforms don’t reflect many of the views voters in these areas hold, so he is taking a different path in an attempt to achieve the same result. O’Rourke has made it a staple of his campaign to visit the small towns and counties that have been ignored in the past which may lead to diminishing gaps come November.
Yet, perhaps the biggest dark horse strategy of O’Rourke’s campaign has been his utilization and transparency of and on social media. The role of digital campaigning and social media has grown exponentially since the Obama campaigns, however, the events of the 2016 presidential campaign season have created a large mistrust with the information Americans receive through social media and other online digital platforms. The discovery of bots used to spread information and the predominance of fake news had sparked mistrust between the public and digital media, especially with information received through social media such as Facebook and Twitter. A recent Gallup Poll (2018) revealed that 80% of Americans believe the news they receive through social media is biased.
O’Rourke’s digital and social media strategy is multi-faceted. O’Rourke’s campaign understands the shifting demographics in the United States. Millennials are now the largest voting-age population in the United States, and non-coincidentally account for the largest population of social media users (Statistica, 2014). O’Rourke has devoted a majority of his campaign budget to online advertising and social media in an attempt to mobilize the largest group of voters while countering the mistrust within the American public by sharing authentic content. Unlike traditional forms of advertising, O’Rourke’s campaign advertising has been dominated by self-made videos and live streams of him speaking during rallies and town halls throughout the state[4].
Additionally, like Trump, O’Rourke hasn’t shied away from addressing controversial topics and using such opportunities to gain recognition. Most recently, O’Rourke took a stance on the controversial #takeaknee movement in a video which was shared hundreds of thousands of time on various social media. The video was also shared by public figures such as LeBron James and Kevin Bacon. This publicity boost has been important for the El Paso congressman who wasn’t well known prior, unlike his opponent. Cruz gained tremendous national recognition in 2016 when running for the GOP nomination for president. O’Rourke’s ability to gain national recognition has aided his fundraising and forced voters to pay attention.
O’Rourke’s campaign strategy is the reason why the Democratic Congressman from El Paso has fared surprisingly well this mid-term. His commitment to not take PAC money reflects a shifting sentiment around the role of big money in campaigning and aligns with the ideology of many other successful Democrats this mid-term. His visits to each of the 254 Texas counties are a different approach to the Trump campaign strategy to appeal to the small town and rural populations that are often ignored. Maybe most importantly, O’Rourke recognizes the potential of the largest population of eligible voters and has tailored his advertising and campaign strategies to mobilizing young Americans to the polls. Mix this with O’Rourke’s transparent and authentic campaign and his ability to use controversial topics to gain recognition and what is created is a comprehensive strategy that has allowed a Democratic candidate to be competitive in Texas for the first time in 20 years. Win or lose this November, the O’Rourke campaign, along with other Democratic victories across the nation this mid-term, reveals a new blueprint for campaigning and hints towards a future strategy of the Democratic Party heading towards 2020.
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